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Politics and Governance

"Programa de Fiscalização a partir de Sorteios Públicos" (Brazil)




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Authors

Claudio Ferraz, Frederico Finan

Source

Quarterly Journal of Economics

Year

2008

Link

Intervention

"Programa de Fiscalização a partir de Sorteios Públicos", implemented by the Brazilian Office of the Comptroller General (CGU), consisted of: (i) random selection of municipalities to audit a random set of federal funds transferred to the municipal government during the previous three to four years; (ii) disclosure of the main findings on the Internet and to main media sources; the average probability of being audited in a given lottery is close to 1 percent, but the probability of being audited in a political term ranges from approximately 10 to 25 percent across states

Unit of Analysis

Municipalities that were both audited and governed by a first-term mayor, who was eligible for reelection in 2004

Year

2003-2004

Country

Brazil

Outcome Methodology Effect
Mayor was reelected in 2004 Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.036, Standard error: 0.053, Counterfactual mean: 0.413
Mayor was reelected in 2004 (conditional on audit reports showing no corruption violations) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.010, Standard error: 0.156, Counterfactual mean: 0.413
Mayor was reelected in 2004 (conditional on audit reports showing 2 corruption violations) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.253, Standard error: 0.148, Counterfactual mean: 0.413
Mayor was reelected in 2004 (conditional on audit reports showing 3 corruption violations) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.321, Standard error: 0.192, Counterfactual mean: 0.413
Mayor was reelected in 2004 (conditional on audit reports showing 4 or more corruption violations) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.159, Standard error: 0.168, Counterfactual mean: 0.413

Authors

Claudio Ferraz, Frederico Finan, Eric Avis

Source

Journal of Political Economy

Year

2017

Link

Intervention

"Programa de Fiscalização a partir de Sorteios Públicos", implemented by the Brazilian Office of the Comptroller General (CGU), consisted of: (i) random selection of municipalities to audit a random set of federal funds transferred to the municipal government during the previous three to four years; (ii) disclosure of the main findings on the Internet and to main media sources; the average probability of being audited in a given lottery is close to 1 percent, but the probability of being audited in a political term ranges from approximately 10 to 25 percent across states

Unit of Analysis

Municipalities with less than 500,000 inhabitants

Year

2006 - 2013

Country

Brazil

Outcome Methodology Effect
Number of irregularities (mismanagement and corruption) in logarithm in the years following an audit (sub-sample of municipalities audited at least once) Randomized Controlled Trial (panel regression, with controls and/or strata dummies) Magnitude: -0.058, Standard error: 0.021
Acts of mismanagement in logarithm in the years following an audit (sub-sample of municipalities audited at least once) Randomized Controlled Trial (panel regression, with controls and/or strata dummies) Magnitude: -0.023, Standard error: 0.041
Acts of corruption in logarithm in the years following an audit (sub-sample of municipalities audited at least once) Randomized Controlled Trial (panel regression, with controls and/or strata dummies) Magnitude: -0.079, Standard error: 0.027
Police crackdown on political corruption was conducted in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (panel regression, with controls and/or strata dummies) Magnitude: 0.00139, Standard error: 0.001, Counterfactual mean: 0.003
Mayor was prosecuted for corruption in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (panel regression, with controls and/or strata dummies) Magnitude: 0.0043, Standard error: 0.002, Counterfactual mean: 0.025
Police investigation or a conviction occurred in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (panel regression, with controls and/or strata dummies) Magnitude: 0.00562, Standard error: 0.003, Counterfactual mean: 0.029

Authors

Emanuele Colonnelli, Mounu Prem

Source

Working Paper

Year

2017

Link

Intervention

"Programa de Fiscalização a partir de Sorteios Públicos", implemented by the Brazilian Office of the Comptroller General (CGU), consisted of: (i) random selection of municipalities to audit a random set of federal funds transferred to the municipal government during the previous three to four years; (ii) disclosure of the main findings on the Internet and to main media sources; the average probability of being audited in a given lottery is close to 1 percent, but the probability of being audited in a political term ranges from approximately 10 to 25 percent across states

Unit of Analysis

Revising...

Year

Revising...

Country

Brazil

Outcome Methodology Effect
Total number of (formal?) private sector employees in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.026, Standard error: 0.014
Total number of (formal?) private sector establishments in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.026, Standard error: 0.007
Total number of (formal?) new private sector establishments in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.018, Standard error: 0.008
Total number of (formal?) exiting private sector establishments in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.007, Standard error: 0.010
Total number of (formal?) private sector employees in new establishments in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.047, Standard error: 0.017
Total number of (formal?) private sector employees in establishments operating in the municipality in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.021, Standard error: 0.015
Total volume of loans from private banks to firms in logarithm in the years following an audit Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.038, Standard error: 0.019


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