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Politics and Governance

Monitoring Threats and Reminders to Polling Centers' Officials on Fines/Imprisonment (Uganda)



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Authors

Michael Callen, Clark Gibson, Danielle Jung, James Long

Source

Journal of Experimental Political Science

Year

2016

Link

Intervention

Letter sent to polling centers' officials on election day: (i) saying that researchers would return to compare a photo of the publicly posted form declaring the results counting with the corresponding official reports ; (ii) reminding of fines and/or time of imprisonment for inaccurately reporting voting results

Unit of Analysis

Polling centers drawn from Uganda’s official national list of polling centers

Year

2011

Country

Uganda

Outcome Methodology Effect
No form publicly available at the polling center Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.060, Standard error: 0.033, Counterfactual mean: 0.721
No form publicly available at the polling center (sub-sample excluding North region) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.117, Standard error: 0.041, Counterfactual mean: 0.779
Last two digits on the vote total for the top vote recipient in a given polling center being adjacent, measure of incidence of manufactured numbers Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.065, Standard error: 0.034, Counterfactual mean: 0.254
Last two digits on the vote total for the top vote recipient in a given polling center being adjacent, measure of incidence of manufactured numbers (sub-sample excluding North region) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: -0.074, Standard error: 0.045, Counterfactual mean: 0.309
Votes for the incumbent (in logarithm) Randomized Controlled Trial (Average Intention-to-Treat Parameter) Magnitude: 0.013, Standard error: 0.023


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